Trump says a deal is largely done. Tehran says not so fast. That gap is what markets are navigating Wednesday morning.

President Trump signaled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran are near completion, with provisions covering the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear concerns. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quickly walked it back, saying a deal is not necessarily imminent. Recent US military strikes in southern Iran have kept traders on edge, even as mediators continue shuttling between both sides.

Brent crude sits in the $97-$98 range, down from conflict highs but still elevated. The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil trade. A deal reopens the spigot and eases inflation. A breakdown spikes prices again, right as summer driving demand peaks. Energy stocks will move on every headline.

The Conference Board drops its monthly Consumer Confidence reading at 10:00 AM ET. Nobody is expecting fireworks. Sticky inflation and elevated gas prices have been chipping away at sentiment, and recent surveys show consumers losing faith in long-term price stability, Trump supporters included.

A beat steadies the narrative and supports spending resilience. A miss, paired with a negative Iran headline, gives bears exactly what they need to test these record levels.

Q1 2026 earnings season is running hot, with S&P 500 growth projections in the 20-28% range. Wednesday's slate is packed. The names to watch:

•       Salesforce (CRM): AI integration is the story. Guidance on enterprise adoption will set the tone.

•       Marvell (MRVL) and Synopsys (SNPS): Two semiconductor reads on whether AI infrastructure spending is holding.

•       Snowflake (SNOW): The data cloud proxy for enterprise AI budgets. A miss here rattles the whole thesis.

•       Costco (COST): The real economy gut-check. Are consumers still spending despite the squeeze?

•       PDD Holdings: International demand signal with cross-border trade implications.

Strong beats with confident forward guidance push the rally further. Weak guidance from high-multiple names, and the air comes out fast.

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US equity futures point to a steady open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are sitting near record closes. Asian markets were mixed overnight, with tech and semis catching a bid after Huawei chip development news. European markets open cautiously, tracking the Middle East.

The setup is straightforward: AI optimism and geopolitical de-escalation hopes are holding the market up. Energy volatility, inflation, and Fed uncertainty are the weights pulling the other direction. Thin volumes heading into the holiday weekend could amplify moves either way.

The IMF sees global growth moderating. Private forecasters agree. Technology exposure is increasingly the consensus hedge against a slower world. But at these valuations, execution has to match the story.

Today, three data points decide which version of the market shows up: diplomacy, the consumer, and earnings. Watch all three.